Saturday, July 20, 2019

UPSEAA lecture 1, Robina Gokongwei-Pe

The UP School of Economics Alumni Association (UPSEAA) holds a regular, monthly lecture or social event given/hosted by an alumni, or a supporter of UPSE. Last January or February was the joint lecture by then DBM Sec. Ben Diokno and NEDA Sec. Ernie Pernia, both former faculty members of the school. Last March a tour of Limtuaco Museum in Intramuros, Destileria Limtuaco is headed by UPSEAAn Olive Limpe-Aw, her son is also a school alumni, Aaron L. Aw. Last April... I don't remember. 

Last May 24, a lecture by Robina Gokongwei-Pe, also an alumni and head of Universal Robina, other Gokongwei companies. I wanted to hear the lady but I was in Sydney that week, attended the 7th ALSFC and WTA conference. So I just went to the UPSEAA's fb page and dug some photos, reposting some pics here.


An old joke that I shared at the UPSEAA viber group:

There are several ways to successful business -- the Protestant ethics way, the Jewish way, the Confucian way, and the Gokongwei. :-)

From some of Robina's slides, wow!


Now see one of the reactors to her talk -- Coach Bo Perasol, of the UP Fighting Maroons, UP Men's Basketball Team at the UAAP.


Coach Bo gathered five of his UP players that night, including team stars Bright Akhuetie and Juan Gomez de Liano. They came because Robina has been one of the original private sector donors of the team, they recognize her support.


Business and basketball, good combination.


I like to hear speakers from the private sector, especially humble yet successful business leaders. Too bad that I missed it.


Thursday, July 18, 2019

BWorld 349, Solar Para sa Politika, Part 3

* My article in BusinessWorld on July 16, 2019.


Among the promises of the Solar Para sa Bayan Corp. (SPBC) franchise bill now awaiting President Rodrigo Duterte’s signature are 24/7 electricity in far away villages, and cheaper electricity because the sun’s rays are free.

True, the sun’s rays are free, but the solar panels, the power conditioning unit, main panel, AC and DC disconnect, other components are not free. Transportation and installation in far away areas and connection to the grid are not.

Add to that the cost of a battery to extend the power for few hours at night, plus the cost of backup diesel gensets since solar does not generate power at night and hardly produces power on days with thick clouds and rain. Solar components plus battery plus gensets cannot be cheap and power stability is not assured.

In a site inspection by the Philippine and Rural Electric Cooperatives Association Inc. of some barangays in Occidental Mindoro served by SPBC in November 2018, they found that residents experienced an average of two- to three-hour brownouts plus frequent on-and-off power outages every day, resulting in damaged appliances, and that the rate charged started at a low P2.34/kilowatt hour (kWh) which later rose to around P11/kWh.

Instead of favoring one particular energy firm, we need more big conventional power plants. Compared to more stable economies in Asia, the Philippines has among the lowest installed power capacity and, by extension, among the lowest electricity generation. Our capacity in 2016 was just one-half of that in Thailand, Vietnam, and Taiwan (see table). 


People who want “green energy” and do not want to use electricity from fossil fuels without putting up a rooftop solar system (and cut or murder nearby tall trees that provide shade and reduce solar output) can actually get their wish via the retail competition and open access (RCOA) provision of the EPIRA (Electric Power Industry Reform Act) of 2001 (RA 9136). Contestable customers can choose their own licensed retail electricity suppliers (RES) and specify that they should be provided only renewable energy like hydro, geothermal, biomass, solar, or wind. The price might be higher but they get what they want. This will also send a signal to power investors to develop more renewables because customers are willing to pay the higher price without the need for subsidies from all electricity consumers nationwide, without need for new legislation.

We need more market competition in power generation and retail supply. We need more big power plants, conventional and renewables, more gencos and let them compete for customers.

We should not have enacted a law that gives a guaranteed price for renewables for 20 years via feed in tariff (FIT) as this violates market competition and disempowers consumers — they cannot say “No” to additional charges like the FIT-Allowance slapped into their monthly electricity bill for 20 or 25 years.

The law is there — RE Act of 2008 (RA 9513) — and it resulted in the upward price distortion in energy prices.

We should not add more energy distortions by having that “Solar para sa Politika” franchise bill become a law. President Duterte should veto it.

Finally, the Supreme Court should lift its TRO on the Energy Regulatory Commission resolutions on RCOA’s implementation. The threshold for contestable customers should have been down to 500 kilowatts or lower by now. The number of competing RES should be plentier by now. And the choices of consumers for their power generators and suppliers should be many, not few and restricted.
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Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Classless society because of far away storm

Local government units (LGUs) in M. Manila, other provinces and regions, are silent communists -- they want a "classless" society, as frequent as possible, with or without typhoons. Lousy. Should be among the results of climate alarmism. No rain or more rains, no flood or more floods, no cold or more cold, be alarmed, be scared, and we send more money to government and UN.

Today, NO storm signal in Metro Manila yet classes are suspended in ALL levels, kinder to college, wow. People are scared of rains? But June to October is rainy season, yearly, since thousands of years ago. July to Sept esp are months of bad rains and storms. If people are scared of rains, then classes should open in October or November, not June or July or August.

The typhoon is in Cagayan, hundreds of kilometers away from M.Manila, and a "classless society" is declared today all over M.Manila.

The old and existing rule on class cancellations:


Not even signal #1 in M. Manila and classes in ALL levels are suspended. One more reason why governments should not expand. Their expertise is social paralysis. Things should not move unless they give permits. Meanwhile a neighbor is drying clothes outside, no rains, not even shower, since around last midnight.
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Sunday, July 14, 2019

China Watch 37, US is winning the trade-IPR conflict with China

As of last Friday, US' DJIA was at all-time high at 27,332, Nasdaq and S&P 500 also all-time high. In the past 3 years, DJIA is +50%, Nasdaq +65%; China's Shanghai is -2%, Shenzhen -22%. 

In Nov. 4 2016, days before the US Presidential elections, Shanghai was +5%, Shenzhen was +4%.
Conclusion -- Trump is good for the US, bad for China.



Many Trump-haters will be unhappy with this fact, they argue that Trump is bad for the US economy, bad for US agri and stocks, that he should have not "started the trade war" with their (silently beloved) China. But investors on both countries speak louder than these haters. Investors speak with their money and investments, not just with saliva.

Related to the SCS or WPS territorial conflict, Trump will prevail over Xi Jinping. Frequently sending his battle ships in the area, inviting Australia, UK, Japan to do the same, is an outright statement that the area is international waters, not China waters. They are on the side of the weaker SE Asia countries.

On the lesser known US vs OPEC+Russia oil war, Trump also wins. OPEC+Russia want oil to be in $70 a barrel or higher, they jointly cut their output by 1.2 million barrels per day (mbpd), extended till March 2020. But US oil output is rising, only 8.8 mbpd end Obama period, this week 12.3 mbpd. Trump and US want cheaper oil, OPEC+Russia want expensive oil. Duterte too via TRAIN law.

Some US academics like Martin Jacques will be unhappy with that chart too. He keeps spreading the fake news that "US is now a declining power. The Soviet Union failed: China is the antithesis of failure."

I have personally heard him say that in Jeju, S. Korea forum last May 30, and he repeats that in his articles. He's anti-US, pro-communist China. Which is the obvious loser in the ongoing trade/IPR conflict with the US. Loser guy.

A good lesson here -- if you are a US ally, you will likely benefit from its current trade/IPR conflict with China. Like Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, other ASEAN countries. A number of companies which are leaving or already left China are now in Vietnam, Myanmar, Malaysia.

If President Duterte continues with his a__ licking of the Beijing govt, Trump might find a way to tell US consumers to minimize buying from PH.

Meanwhile In China, Beijing Is Losing Control Of The Economy
by Tyler Durden  Sat, 07/13/2019 - 15:15
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Saturday, July 13, 2019

BWorld 348, Private airports and government airport authorities

* This is my article in BusinessWorld on July 11, 2019.


As argued in previous columns, I advocate integrated Public–Private Partnership (PPP) — construction then Operations and Maintenance (O&M) all done and financed by one private entity — and not hybrid PPP — construction via foreign loan or national budget, O&M by local private entity. I like the development in some provincial airports that become bigger, more modern international airports, privately owned and managed, and helping attract more foreign tourism, investments and commerce.

I saw a paper, “Airport ownership, economic regulation and financial performance” (2016) by the Airports Council International (ACI). (See Table.)
  

ACI made four policy recommendations:

• No “one size fits all” approach to airport ownership;
• Create economic incentives and guarantee consistency in regulatory frameworks;
• Evidence-based policy making, and
• Fostering entrepreneurship and value creation.

Good. Private ownership and management of airports is consistent with attracting more private investors and traders, local and foreign.

Among the big, modern and privately owned airports in the Philippines are the Mactan-Cebu International Airport (MCIA) and, soon, the Davao or Francisco Bangoy International Airport (FBIA).

There are just some twists here. While the international airport is privately owned for 25 or 30 years or longer (after which it will be government-owned), there are government agencies that will “control, supervise, construct, maintain, operate and provide such facilities or services…”

These agencies are the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP) for other provincial airports, the MCIA Authority (MCIAA, RA 6958 enacted in July 1990) and, soon, the Davao International Airport Authority (DIAA) under SB 2168 and waiting for President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s signature to become a law.

This seems confusing because the private owners of the new international airports are supposed to have overall control and management of the passenger terminals, the runway and plane taxi bay, etc. But there are government agencies that, on top of the functions quoted above, have the power to:

“Acquire, purchase, own, administer, lease, mortgage, sell or otherwise dispose of any land, building, airport facility, or property of whatever kind and nature, whether movable or immovable… levy and collect dues, charges, fees or assessments for the use of airport premises, works, appliances, facilities or concessions, or for any service provided by the Authority…”

The implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of such laws can be complicated but must clearly delineate where a government agency, its national and local bureaucracies, can or cannot intervene, in facilities and structures that were entirely built and funded by the private sector.

While the private sector has the incentives to develop modern international airports that they will operate for two to three decades or more, local and national bureaucracies do not have similar incentives as their outlook is short-term, dependent on their appointment for six years or less by the administration in power.

Let us hope that more investors, local and foreign, will expand current small provincial airports into big and modern international airports. More accommodating, more visitors-friendly international airports are often the gateway to more foreign tourism, trade and investments into the country.

So we wish for more modern, privately owned international airports and less-interventionist airport authorities and other government agencies, local and national. We expand the wish-list to include more budget terminals charging lower terminal fees, alongside main terminals by private contractors and airport owners; more airlines competition via the amendment and liberalization of the Public Service Act; and, abolition of the travel tax. The Philippines seems to be the only country in East Asia that penalizes its own citizens for travelling abroad.
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Climate Tricks 81, Disregarding the role of Galactic cosmic rays

Climate alarmism is based on political science that masquerade as climate science. The goal is global ecological central planning -- more UN, more governments, more foreign aid loans, more carbon taxes, energy rationing.

The role of natural factors like clouds, the Sun and its cyclical solar max-solar minimum, galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), etc. are disregarded. Five related articles here, enjoy.
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(1) Physicists: Clouds ‘Practically Control’ Climate, Whereas Human Warming Amounts To 0.01°C Per 100 Years
By Kenneth Richard on 11. July 2019

Two University of Turku (Finland) physicists have determined a) the climate’s sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 is 0.24°C, b) the human contribution to the warming of the past century is only about 0.01°C, c) the IPCC and climate modeling dramatically overestimate CO2’s climate impact, and d) variations in low cloud cover control the climate….

When low cloud cover data from satellite observations are considered, a very clear correlation emerges.
As low cloud cover decreases, more solar radiation can be absorbed by the oceans rather than reflected back to space. Thus, decadal-scale decreases in low cloud cover elicit warming.
When cloud cover increases, cooling ensues.


In this manner, Kauppien and Malmi (2019) find “low clouds practically control the global temperature,” which leaves “no room for the contribution of greenhouse gases i.e. anthropogenic forcing.”

(2) Bombshell Claim: Scientists Find "Man-made Climate Change Doesn't Exist In Practice"
by Tyler Durden   Fri, 07/12/2019 - 05:55

“During the last hundred years the temperature increased about 0.1°C because of carbon dioxide. The human contribution was about 0.01°C”, the Finnish researchers bluntly state in one among a series of papers.

This has been collaborated by a team at Kobe University in Japan, which has furthered the Finnish researchers' theory: "New evidence suggests that high-energy particles from space known as galactic cosmic rays affect the Earth's climate by increasing cloud cover, causing an 'umbrella effect'," the just published study has found, a summary of which has been released in the journal Science Daily.

Conclusions from the Finnish studies:

“During the last hundred years the temperature increased about 0.1°C because of carbon dioxide. The human contribution was about 0.01°C.”

“Because the anthropogenic portion in the increased carbon dioxide is less than 10 percent, we have practically no anthropogenic climate change,” the researchers concluded.

(3) “GOODBYE ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING” — DR. ROGER HIGGS
JANUARY 23, 2019 CAP ALLON

“The Earth is now cooling,” says geologist Dr. Roger Higgs.

“Man-made-global-warming believers will by 2021 have to admit they were wrong and that CO2 is blameless and that Svensmark’s sun/cosmic ray/cloud/temperature link is correct.”

(4) COSMIC RAYS, CLOUD SEEDING AND GLOBAL COOLING
MARCH 26, 2019 CAP ALLON

Galactic Cosmic Rays are a mixture of high-energy photons and sub-atomic particles accelerated toward Earth by supernova explosions and other violent events in the cosmos. Solar Cosmic Rays are the same, though their source is the sun.

Both Galactic and Solar Cosmic rays hitting Earth’s atmosphere create aerosols which, in turn, seed clouds (Svensmark et al) — making them an important player in our weather and climate.

During solar minimum, like the one we’re entering now, the sun’s magnetic field weakens and the outward pressure of the solar wind decreases.

This allows more cosmic rays from deep space to penetrate our planet’s atmosphere:


(5) Reducing the future to climate: a story of climate determinism and reductionism.
charles the moderator / July 9, 2019

An excellent twitter thread by @RodgerPielkeJr concerning a paper by Hulme, M.
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Thursday, July 11, 2019

BWorld 347, Inflation and TNVS costs

* My column in BusinessWorld on July 9, 2019.


The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) has reported that the country’s lowest inflation rate this year and last year, or over the span of 18 months, was 2.7% in June. This is indeed good news and can be traced to two major factors.

One, lower world oil prices. The WTI (West Texas Intermediate) June average price was only $54.7 a barrel vs. April’s $63.9 and May’s $60.8 a barrel. Two, the implementation of the Rice Tariffication Law (RTL, RA 11203) where the quantitative restriction (QR) over rice was removed and larger supply of cheaper imported rice from our neighbors came in.

Still, the Philippines has the highest inflation rate among more mature East Asian economies year to date 2019 where six of the 11 economies listed have inflation rate of below 1% (see Table 1). 


China is feeling the pinch this year thanks to its trade conflict with the US — its inflation rate was rising consistently from 1.5% in February to 2.7% in May.

I checked the monthly inflation rate by commodity groups and compared the Philippines’ numbers with those of the National Capital Region (NCR). Of the 11 groups, eight have similar country and NCR values, but three groups diverge or look like outliers. These are Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco (ABT), Transport, and Education. The difference between NCR and Philippine inflation is derived in Table 2.

  
Let me focus on the higher inflation for Transportation in the NCR vs Philippines overall, in relation to the transportation network vehicle service (TNVS) “strike” yesterday due to the more costly restrictions of the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB),

The inefficient public transport system in the NCR and other big cities in the country force many people who do not want the inconvenience of taking multiple rides from house to work, grocery or school and back, to drive their own cars or motorcycles. Which further worsens traffic congestion.

The alternative to driving one’s own car or motorcycle in heavy traffic (then endure the difficulty of finding often expensive parking) is to take a taxi or TNVS. Most car owners prefer TNVS than taxis because of transparency, safety, and tech-based convenience. When there are not enough TNVS around, the waiting time and fare go up, which contributes to high transport inflation in NCR.

Beyond the low world oil prices, RTL, reducing interest rates or certain taxes, there are administrative measures that can help bring down inflation. In this case, the LTFRB should expand, not restrict, the supply of TNVS, taxis, and buses with deregulated routes and fares. More competition will bring down public transport costs, and more people will leave their cars or motorcycles at home on weekdays.
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Monday, July 08, 2019

Energy 128, Oil production and ENSO

If people want expensive oil and energy, they can embrace Putin/Russia and Saudi, they cut their output to force high oil prices. Embrace also the Democrats, other planet saviors.
If people want cheaper oil and energy (esp. those who frequently jet set), they must recognize the efforts of Trump and the US, keep raising oil (and gas) output to have lower prices.


When it comes to energy policy, Trump-hating "free marketers" are actually Putin-loving, Saudi/despots-loving people. Expensive energy is wrong and evil, that's why those carbon taxes, high oil taxes, etc are bad, anti-market, pro-state policies.

Sharing two related stories:

1. The U.S. Accounted For 98% Of Global Oil Production Growth In 2018
Robert Rapier Contributor   Jun 23, 2019, 06:00pm

2. U.S. Oil Rig Count Falls Amid Rising Production
By Julianne Geiger - Jul 05, 2019, 12:19 PM CDT
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Meanwhile, on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO):
(1) No such thing as "worsening El Nino" due to Gorebal warming, only endless El Nino-La Nina cycle.
(2) Current El Nino expected to end this week (based on NOAA models as of today, July 8).
(3) We're heading to another phase of La Nina; how strong or weak, we don't know yet. 


The modern meteorological models today -- they cannot even accurately predict the weather 12 or 2 hours away. Yet the UN, Al Gore, etc are so sure that their models can predict with certainty the weather and climate (2 C hotter, 3 C hotter...) 100 years from now. And we make environment, energy, transpo, construction, agri, etc. policies based on those phony climate predictions. Huge racket by climate alarmism and global ecological central planning movement.

Sharing four related stories, note the eco-lunatics in the last report:

1. Record High Temperatures in France: 3 Facts the Media Don’t Tell You
July 2nd, 2019   by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

2. Medieval Climate Anomaly Now Confirmed In Southern Hemisphere On All Four Continents
By P Gosselin on 6. July 2019

3. MATT RIDLEY: REJOICE IN THE LUSH GLOBAL GREENING
Date: 04/07/19 Matt Ridley, Die Weltwoche

4. Climate Extremists Plan to Attack Airport with Small Drones
Eric Worrall / July 6, 2019
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