Thursday, March 15, 2018

Ytd, PH stockmarket is the poorest performer in AsPac

Year to date (ytd) or from January 01 to March 15, 2018, the PH stockmarket is the poorest or worst performer in the Asia-Pacific. JP's Abe has corruption scandal while PH's Duterte has drugs and China scandal, ICC problem, and tax-tax-tax de TRAIN. Data from as of 9pm today.

There should be rising investment uncertainties here. TRAIN 1 overall tax hikes, now TRAIN 2 in Congress proposes withrawal of many fiscal incentives to corporations while the promised cut in corporate income tax (CIT) from 30% to 25% will be in 2022, the end of Du30 term.

Comments from my three friends, Patrick, Jun, Alvin:

P: Expensive market. Needs more of this much needed correction.

J: Hard to pinpoint exact cause. It doesn't help when institutions like the Supreme Court are being undermined by politics but hard to say how much effect that has on the market.

A: The market rose too fast in the last 2 months of last year and early part this year. It is trimming excesses. But like Jun, its really difficult to pinpoint a single reason.

Thanks guys. So this is a combination of political and business uncertainties trying to reinforce each other. I am sure part of TRAIN 1 revenues are used to buy more votes in Congress for the impeachment of SC CJ, then Ombudsman, on top of hard sell federalism, barangay no-elections agenda. And this TRAIN 2 drama adds more color. And there are TRAIN 3, 4, 5 waiting for 2019-2021, all translating to more, higher taxes for the people and the business sector.

Of all major factors of production -- land, labor, capital -- capital is the most mobile across the globe. You impose more politics of envy ("over-tax the rich, the businessmen, the foreign investors"), you get what you wish for.

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