Tuesday, July 10, 2018

PAGASA 5, They cannot accurately forecast the weather even 1 hour ahead but they can forecast global temp 100 years from now

Yesterday I was angry because of useless class cancellations. My 2 daughters should have classes yesterday and learning new stuff but DOST-PAGASA would f__k up their work in weather forecasting. And many LGUs quickly pushed the 'suspend classes' button.

I woke up yesterday 7am+ and four hours earlier, PAGASA made this wrong forecast:

"Heavy rains with lightning and strong winds due to thunderstorms are expected over #MetroMaila, #Bulacan, #Rizal, #Cavite within the next 2 hours."


Whole day yesterday, it was sunny in the morning, no rain, no wind, yet no classes. Some rains in Makati on and off for few minutes but definitely no strong wind, no heavy rains.

Then at close to 12nn yesterday, PAGASA predicted,

"Moderate to heavy rains with lightning and strong winds... next 30 minutes to 1 hour in... Pasay, Makati, Taguig..."


Until past 1pm yesterday in Makati -- NO heavy rains, no lightning, no strong winds. They cannot 

forecast accurately even for 1 hour ahead, even for a small area like M.Manila.

PAGASA is among the members of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) under the UN. PAGASA cannot predict the weather w accuracy even 6-12 hrs away, even 1 hour away, they cannot predict w accuracy wind speed at narrow range few hrs away, in a small area like Metro Manila and nearby provinces. Yet PAGASA-WMO-UN-Al Gore-... can predict with accuracy the global temp. range 100 yrs from now, that it will be sizzling-scorching planet unless we send them hundreds of $ billions a year.

Weather forecasting should be deregulated, PAGASA be privatized. Allow competing private players to do national and regional weather forecasts. Those that frequently make wrong forecasts will go bankrupt. Currently, PAGASA budget gets higher as their forecasts become off-target often. It is rewarded for lousy forecasts.

If private weather forecasting agencies, what would be the revenue model?

A friend asked me that question. I think mainly via subscriptions. Very likely ALL airlines, all shipping lines, major bus/RORO lines, hotel chains, tourism spots, provincial governments, national government agencies (DA, DENR, Coast Guard, agri-business firms, etc will subscribe. They will get very area-specific forecast, say for Iloilo City alone and may exclude forecasts for Aklan and Capiz provinces.

Competition among private weather forecasting companies will lead to better overall weather outlook. The lousy firms will go bankrupt, the better firms will get more subscribers. Currently, Dost_pagasa lousiness is rewarded with more budget the next year, monopoly eh.
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