Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Physics paper predicting global cooling

There's a paper entitled "The Variable Solar Dynamo and the Forecast of Solar Activity; Influence on Terrestial Surface Temperature", written by C. de Jager and S. Duhau. Jager is from the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Duhau is from the Department of Physics, University of Buenos Aires.

Portion of the Abstract says,

We expect a low next solar maximum, around 2014. After the 20th century Grand Maximum, a Grand Minimum will start in one or two decades from present. It will last one Gleissberg cycle.... About 40% of the gradual increase of terrestial surface temperature is correlated with solar variability. Of this amount, about two-thirds is correlated with toroidal field variations and that component can fully be explained quantitatively by the gradual increase of Total Solar Irradiance and the consequent feedback by evaporated gases. A yet unexplained fraction of ~30% is explained by poloidal field. After subtracting these components the residual smoothed global warming was 0.31 degrees in 1999.

See the paper here,

So there you go. Another scientific paper explaining that the Sun, not man-made carbon emission, is the main driver of the planet's climate.

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