"The reduction in the trade barriers within the TPP
(with or without Philippine participation) results in trade creation within the
TPP and trade diversion from the non-TPP...
The model results show that TPP participation will lead
to an overall welfare gain for the Philippines. But the gain can potentially be
higher. The analysis in the paper only considers additional yearly FDI inflows
of US$1 billion over a 10-year period. While these inflows will improve the
economy’s position relative to the FDI frontier..."
Potential Economic Effects on the Philippines of the
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
by Caesar B. Cororaton and David Orden
Revised February 2015
"Thailand is highly interested in joining TPP
...," Somkid Jatusripitak told a news conference in Tokyo. "Chances
are high that Thailand will seek to join TPP."
Somkid, the country's economic tsar, said the government
was analysing the impact of joining the trade deal, particularly on sensitive
issues like agriculture and pharmaceuticals...."
Nov. 27, 2015, http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/art.../idUKKBN0TG0I620151127...
"Indonesia should join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as a way to promote structural reform. Such reform would include restructuring state-owned enterprises (SOEs), improving the investment climate, improving economic efficiency and productivity to create jobs for the nation’s surplus labor and promoting exports. The spectacular experience of East Asia indicates that East Asian countries have become more developed and prosperous during the past 60 years mainly due to their greater penetration into international markets through trade and incoming private investment."
December 07, 2015, http://m.thejakartapost.com/.../benefits-trans-pacific...
"Under the agreement, companies can gain substantial
benefits from being located in TPP member countries and selling goods and
services into other TPP member markets.
The most obvious change in a post-TPP world will be the
reduction of tariffs. On the date of entry into force of the agreement, 90% of
all goods tariffs in all 12 members will drop overnight to zero. The remaining
tariffs will also drop, over time, with many eventually becoming duty free.
The tariff reductions mean that firms may no longer have
to contend with tariff peaks—specific items or sectors where tariffs can easily
reach 30, 50, or 150%. In many of these markets, companies hoping to export
products have not been competitive. With the reduction in tariffs, new TPP
markets should now be attractive to many firms." -- Deborah Elms, Dec. 10,
2015,
“The big winners on
trade are likely to be the big winners on investment, especially over a 10-year
period,” says Dr Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for
International Economics in Washington, DC.
In percentage
terms, Mr Hufbauer expects Vietnam to be a big winner in both categories
because it is coming from far behind the rest of the field. In addition, its
tariffs on many imports – among the highest in the TPP trade area – will be
lowered or eliminated. To get the maximum benefit from the TPP, Mr Hufbauer
says Vietnam will need better technology and financial services, both of which
will require FDI. “If Vietnam carries through on the reforms in the TPP, it
will get a ton of investment,” he says.
Dec. 10, 2015, http://www.fdiintelligence.com/.../Vietnam-and-Malaysia...
"Japan, Vietnam and Malaysia are set to get a big
economic boost from a sweeping Pacific trade agreement concluded in October,
while the U.S. and other North American countries would see much smaller gains
from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, according to the first detailed study of
the pact."
Jan. 6, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/.../pacific-trade-pact-set-to-give-big...
"Being a part of the TPP is a significant component
of our international trade strategy which has been in place over the past four
years, the newly appointed Cabinet official said.
“Some estimated it may take another two years for the TPP
to take effect, because there are provisions that lay down some conditions
before it could take effect,” he said.
"The 12 nations agreed to a deal that, if
implemented, would not only reduce or eliminate tariffs but rein in the
advantages of state-owned enterprises and impose binding environmental
standards.
Even though Beijing isn’t part of the deal, Obama
administration officials say the rules will still challenge China to reform its
economy in other ways. The TPP, endorsed by many former military officers,
would also boost Washington’s ties with its allies in the region a time when
China is flexing its economic and military muscles."
Jan. 12, 2016, http://blogs.wsj.com/.../will-the-pacific-trade-pact.../
"Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia have
actually expressed interest to be part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership
Agreement (TPPA), said the International Trade and Industry Ministry (Miti).
Miti said this in its written response to issues raised
by Dr Jomo Kwame Sundaram recently that countries such as Thailand and the
Philippines had opted to distance themselves from this treaty."
Jan. 14, 2016, http://www.thestar.com.my/.../thailand-philippines-and.../
------------
See also:
Free Trade 46: Debate on TPPA and Liberalization in Malaysia, March 31, 2015
Free Trade 47: TPP, RCEP and IPR, May 11, 2015
Free Trade 55, TPP Agreement, finally, October 06, 2015
Free Trade 56, Trade, investments and taxes in APEC countries, November 08, 2015
Free Trade 57, Growth, IPRI 2015 and the TPP, November 28, 2015
Free Trade 58, TPP and its rabid critics, December 10, 2015
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