Monday, December 19, 2011

Typhoon Washi ("Sendong") in Pictures

Typhoon Washi (local name "Sendong") has killed more than 700 people in Mindanao over the weekend. The number of fatality is rising by the day as many of those previously reported as missing were seen later as corpses. Really terrible scenes. Pictures below are from Taptap Abellanosa's facebook photos

Meanwhile, a blogger from posted in The Anatomy of Murder: Tropical Storm Sendong/Washi that the typhoon was hardly a "surprise" as its existence and direction was tracked by various meteorological organizations abroad including NOAA of the US government for several days even before it made landfall in Mindanao, particularly in Surigao del Sur.

Washi's direction, speed, rainfall amount, estimated diameter, etc. were well known days before it hit the cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan, and other provinces of Mindanao.

Later on, the country's weather bureau PAGASA, and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) expressed surprise at the magnitude of the catastrophe as dozens immediately drowned and died that night of December 16.

I posted in my fb wall this morning, "One more proof why govt bureaucracies like NDRRMC, PAGASA and some LGUs are high on budget but low on intelligence. A typhoon that was observed and monitored daily even one week before landfall, caught them 'by surprise'?".

Meanwhile, here's the global air/tropospheric temperature anomaly for November 2011. Data from Dr. Roy Spencer,

UAH Global Temperature Update for Nov. 2011: +0.12 deg. C

December 15th, 2011
The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for November, 2011 remained about the same as last month, at +0.12 deg. C (click on the image for the full-size version):

The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.
Here are this year’s monthly stats:

2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 0.036 -0.372
2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 0.002 -0.348
2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 6 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 7 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 8 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 9 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178
2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054
2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024
Since last month I predicted another temperature fall for November, which did not occur, I will admit that I should have followed my own advice: don’t try predicting the future based upon the daily temperature updates posted at the Discover website.

And here is the latest forecast (as of yesterday, December 18) for the on-going La Nina. It's projected to last until probably end-2012, and even longer. One more year, or even longer, of more rains. I will not be surprised if we will have another "Year without summer" like in 2009 where even the supposedly peak dry months of April-May have become wet months.

See also:
Australia floods, January 13, 2011
Typhoon Nesat ("Pedring") in pictures, September 28, 2011
Thailand flooding, October 2011, October 15, 2011
Climate stupidity 20: Deep cooling, Vietnam flood, October 18, 2011
Thailand flooding, October 2011 (part 2), October 27, 2011


tetxie said...

Thank you sir for this scientific presentation why there's so much rain brought by Sendong which killed almost a thousand Filipinos in Mindanao. I'm a Forester and my scientific analysis was that the absence of forest in higher grounds also contribute to the fast run of water to the lower ground. No leaves, roots and trunks that supposed help the soil absorbed the rain. The absence of underneath forest cover worsen the absorption capacity of the soil. That's why when heavy rains occured at the highlands bared of forest, its effect is tremendous. This time, Filipinos must learn to give back to nature by planting more trees and avoiding tilling of lands in the upland.

Bienvenido Oplas Jr said...

You're right, Tetxie. Good forest cover in the uplands indeed help mitigate water run off and reduce flash flood even in cases of heavy rainfall. Tree planting, or simply natural forest regeneration by controlling slash and burn system, will help. And it would also help if the public realizes that we are in a period of global cooling, not global warming. This will help them prepare for more heavy rains, more flooding, not more drought.

Philippines Natural Disaster said...

Thank you all so much for your concern. It’s very heartwarming that we Filipinos are all united for one cause and that so many generous hearts take interest in helping the typhoon victims. God bless you all. I wish there were some way to repay you for your generosity.

Phils Calamities said...

Nice post. Thanks for sharing. I hope that preventative measures can be put in place soon. One thing that can be done which costs nothing is each individual take responsibility for their garbage and put it where it belongs instead of throwing it all over the streets, rivers, and everywhere else.