Monday, June 10, 2013

Health Spending 7: Health/GDP Ratio 2011

There was a Philippine Health National Accounts (PHNA) Dissemination Forum held last Friday, June 07, 2013 at Crowne Plaza Galleria. I did not know it, got no invite. I think only members of Alternative Budget Initiative (ABI) Health cluster NGOs were invited. Anyway, thanks to Mercy Fabros of WomanHealth, she emailed the presentation materials today.

The main presentation was made by Ms. Jessamyn Encarnacion, Director, Social Statistics Office, National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB). I don't know if those materials will be posted online in their website, but here are the relevant numbers.

So, total health expenditures (THE) 2011 =  P 431,047 billion (current prices)
Gross domestic products (GDP) 2011 = P9,735,521 billion (current prices)
THE/GDP ratio = 4.43 percent

I checked the WHO website for the Philippines,

It's data of THE/GDP ratio for 2011 = 4.1 percent.

Another understatement and wrong data by the WHO. I think they are getting wrong data for the denominator, the GDP.

Please recall that until March this year, WHO data said that the Philippines' Health/GDP ratio 2010 = 3.6 percent only.  But I made a simple computation for 2010:

THE = P379.32 billion.
GDP=  P9,003.48 billion
Health/GDP ratio = 4.2 percent.

WHO was wrong with its computation, yet it did not double check its figures. The DOH, WB, ADB, UN, NGOs, etc have been using that wrong WHO ratio.

It's good that they have replaced that old and wrong 2010 data with 2011 data. And still it's wrong.
It should 4.4 percent,not 4.1 percent.

Some people might be wondering what the heck is a 0.3 percent of GDP difference, it's "small anyway". Wrong, it's not a small amount.

At P9.375 trillion GDP size, just 0.1 percent of it means P93.75 billion, or more than double the total DOH budget of P42.08 billion in 2012.

So a 0.3 percent understatement of health spending = P281.22 billion of understatement.
That is a big amount, it's not small.

To continue the NSCB presentation, here are their additional numbers. The per capita health expenditures.

The never-ending MDG targets saga.

The picture of MDGs is getting dimmer. Either the goals or implementation, or both, are unrealistic.

Meanwhile, see this DOH budget target, presented by the DOH in the same Forum last Friday. From P42 billion last year, P50 billion this year, to P89 billion next year. Wow, we should be swimming with cash and tax money with this kind of budget target for one department alone.

Education and housing sectors and departments will say, "we need more tax money." Agriculture and environment sectors and departments will also say, "we need more tax money." And the same for the defense/military, police/LGUs, public works, etc. They also need more tax money. So the government should be swimming with cash and lots of tax money next year. Let us see.

See also:
Health Spending 3: Obamacare and Huge Tax Hikes, June 30, 2012
Health Spending 4: Global Aid on Health, 1990-2011, August 28, 2012 

Health Spending 5: Raising DOH Budget for Childhood Cancer, August 29, 2012 

Health Spending 6: Health/GDP Ratio 2010, March 21, 2013

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